RINGING THE BELL
You know my views on the disconnect between financial asset pricing based on the crowd's recency bias of
!["Reading [data releases] without reflecting is like eating without digesting"](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1535401325524-b2a6728f0573?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=webp&ixid=M3wxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDQzfHxjb250ZW1wbGF0ZXxlbnwwfHx8fDE3MjgyNzI0MDN8MA&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=2000)
6 min read
The market rallied on the latest monthly US job data released on Friday.
This note aims to put into context the monthly volatility and highly revised numbers into its cyclical economic framework.
We do this through the lens of many graphs (and sources) of differing elements of labour indicators and the resulting confidence and consumer and business behavioural impacts.
Our conclusions are not like the knee-jerk market price reactions.
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Macro
Second-third-fourth order effects.
Listening or reading anything the legendary Dr Lacy Hunt says and writes reminds me of opening an encyclopaedia of economic
Macro
Volatility pre-empts risk, risk pre-empts opportunity.
(Northern) summer trading can be volatile with lower volume but when investors saw the ISM numbers last week, the Japanese