HOPE...

"If something cannot go on for ever...it will stop." Herbert Stein

Hope is not an investment strategy. However, the HOPE framework for assessing the cascading of cyclical economic activity is a logical and to me an intuitively appealing systematic method. It is accredited to Michael Kantro, CIO of Piper Sandler.

This note (Part-I of II) uses this framework (with some of my own additional indicators to the acronyms) to highlight the cycle risks evident if you know where to look, and importantly if you have no conflict to obfuscate reality because it will impact your own asset-based fees business model.

If you every have to describe my investing philosophy in one sentence - be sure to include the words cyclically aware!

Part-II of these ‘Holiday-happiness posts’ will contrast the financial pricing against this economic perspective and reiterate our portfolio positioning.